Stop Hiring by the Headlines: My Advice for a Mixed Market
A month ago the September jobs report said the economy added 29,000 jobs, and the headlines said hiring had stalled. On November 6 the October report came in at 165,000. Economists had expected about 59,000, according to ABC News. September was revised up to 60,000 in the same release, and unemployment ticked down to 4.1%.
So which is it? Stalled or strong?
I've been recruiting for more than 25 years, and my honest answer is that it doesn't matter much for the hire you need to make.
The headline number is not your market
The national number averages a hospital system, a courier company and a homebuilder into one figure. Look underneath it and October was several different stories. Professional and business services added 70,000 jobs. Health care added 42,000. Construction lost 3,000 jobs overall.
Even that construction number hides the real picture. Associated Builders and Contractors pointed out that nonresidential construction added 13,300 jobs and the losses were on the residential side. Construction unemployment was 3.6%, and construction wages are up 4.7% over the year against 3.1% for all industries. "The October jobs report provided yet more evidence of reemerging construction worker shortages," said ABC chief economist Anirban Basu.
Your market is one role, in one place, at one pay level. That is the only market that decides whether you fill the job.
What hasn't changed all year
While the monthly number bounced around, one figure barely moved. NFIB's October jobs report found 36% of small business owners had openings they could not fill, 12 points above the historical average. Of the owners trying to hire, 86% said they had few or no qualified applicants. That figure was 87% in April and 87% in September.
NFIB's Bill Dunkelberg put it plainly: "The desire to create new jobs and increase wages is there, but the challenge of finding qualified workers remains a persistent barrier for Main Street."
The federal job openings report for September showed 7.5 million openings and a layoff rate of 1.0%. Companies are holding on to the people they have. I wrote about that in April in why "no layoffs" doesn't mean a healthy hiring market, and it still holds. The people you want are mostly employed, and they are not scrolling job boards.
What I tell clients
Hire for the work, not the mood. If the role pays for itself in revenue, capacity or risk you stop carrying, a jobs report should not be what decides it. If it does not pay for itself, a good report should not talk you into it.
Define the outcome before you write the posting. What does this person need to get done in the first year? A list of outcomes produces a different search than a list of requirements, and usually a better hire.
Go to people. Don't wait for them. The strongest candidates for most roles are working right now. Someone has to pick up the phone, explain why your opportunity is worth a conversation and listen to what they would need to move.
Move fast once you find them. Decide ahead of time who interviews, who approves the offer and how long each step takes. Good people rarely stay available while a company makes up its mind.
Be straight about the job. Tell candidates the hard parts. An oversold job gets you a short tenure and another search.
Don't lower the bar because the seat has been empty a while. If a search isn't working, change the search. Look at the pay range, the title, the location or where you are looking. Then hold the standard.
The short version
Headlines will keep swinging. In the last two months alone they went from stalled to surprisingly strong. The companies that hire well are the ones with a clear picture of the role, a real process and the patience to go find the right person.
That is the work we do at UBC, whether it is a Retained Search for a leadership role, Recruiting-as-a-Service when you have several roles to fill or fractional HR to get the foundation in place.
If you have a role that has been open too long, let's talk. You can also call 404-480-0297.
